It is difficult to speak of the murder of innocent people, but it is also impossible to remain silent. First it was Gujarat, now it is Jammu. The nation's mood has turned angry, and far too many sensible people are ready to go to war. In these troubled times, I sometimes think we are fortunate to have a hesitant poet for a prime minister. But our hawks accuse him of indecision and clamour for an American or Israeli style response. The Prussian master of strategy, Clausewitz, teaches that one must only start a war that one can win. Winning in this case would mean the end of cross border terrorism, and will a war with Pakistan achieve this objective? The answer is, no. A warlike Israeli response has not stopped Palestine suicide bombings, nor has a victorious war against the Taliban diminished America's fear of terrorist attacks. Those who talk of a “limited engagement” in Kashmir also know in their hearts that wars can never remain limited once they begin. Thus, it is senseless to think of war in order to stop terror. Counter-terrorism, it seems to me, would be a more effective, lower cost, and lower risk alternative; recruit the jehadis from the ranks of the VHP and Bajrang Dal and we will kill two birds with one stone. The real question in Indian minds is whether we are doomed to live in perpetual conflict with our neighbour. Many believe that even if we were to give Kashmir away to Pakistan, permanent peace would not come to the subcontinent. Historians explain that the reasons lie in the origin of the two states. While saints and idealism created India, distrust and hatred created Pakistan. Hence, Pakistan defines itself in relation to India and is obsessed with it, while India is more relaxed and its neighbour is peripheral to its national psyche. Economists have other reasons to feel pessimistic. For a decade India has been growing at almost twice the rate as Pakistan--6.3 vs. 3.6 per cent; hence, India's national income (in ppp) is now nine times bigger, although it has only seven times more people; and, its per capita income (ppp) is 22 per cent higher. India's population growth rate is fifty per cent slower, while its literacy growth rate is fifty per cent higher. Pakistan's capital formation is 66 per cent lower and it spends less on health and education than it did a decade ago. Unfortunately, it only excels India in its defence expenditure as a proportion of GDP. If these trends continue Pakistan's economy will soon become one-tenth of India's, and its military expenditure will become unsustainable. Then it will collapse, as the Soviet Union did because its economy could not match its military ambitions. But we cannot simply wait for Pakistan to collapse. As the stronger, and hopefully maturer nation we have to keeping trying to seek peace--even if it means a hundred failed Agra and Lahore summits. The alternative is much worse.
Jun 3rd 2002